GOP election drubbing scrambles tax reform outlook

GOP election drubbing scrambles tax reform outlook
Top Republicans in Congress had an urgent message to lawmakers after the party’s drubbing in Tuesday’s elections: Pass tax reform or we’re toast in 2018. “I think it simply means we’ve got to deliver,” Speaker Paul Ryan said Wednesday. And given the party’s epic collapse on repealing Obamacare earlier this year, there’s a pervasive anxiety among lawmakers that they’d better do something big before voters sour on them for good. “Oh yeah. If we face-plant on health care and taxes,” said Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va.), “I don’t want to see it.” But amid the exhortations to be productive and notch a win, there’s a creeping concern that vulnerable House Republicans might also take another lesson from Tuesday’s Democratic romp: tying yourself too closely to a Trump-branded tax reform bill that ends popular tax breaks could be an unpalatable risk. No Republicans specifically cited the election results as a factor in their thinking on tax reform during the day Wednesday. But Democrats spent the day ratcheting up pressure on Republicans whose districts include many of the people who might lose tax benefits, such as state and local tax deductions, mortgage interest credits and more. “It should be a giant stop sign for their tax bill,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said. “If you continue to try and eliminate the state and local [tax] deduction, you are going to kill suburban legislators because the suburbs don’t seem to like Donald Trump.” It’s those suburban House districts that Democrats are hoping to capture to propel them back to the House majority next year. Schumer name-checked Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.), whose district went heavily Democratic in Tuesday’s gubernatorial election, and noted that nearly half of her district’s residents get a popular state and local tax deduction that is marked to be slashed or eliminated in pending GOP tax proposals. Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) sent up an early flare this week when he publicly declared himself “a ‘no’ on tax reform without changes.” “Tax reform should lower taxes for all Americans, regardless where they live,” he tweeted Tuesday. Two New York Republicans, Reps. Lee Zeldin and Peter King, have also opposed the current versions of the House GOP tax reform plan. Most Republicans, though, aligned with their party’s leaders on the meaning of Tuesday’s elections, emphasizing the need to pass a big-ticket legislative priority — and soon — to counter the perception of Congress’ futility. “It clearly is a do-or-die moment in my view in terms of holding the majority,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.). “It doesn’t guarantee you success, but it’s a precondition for success.” Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.), who backs the tax plan, said he views the election results as a motivating force for Republicans to pass tax reform. “What I saw was more of a frustration with not getting something done,” Reed said. He questioned the notion that vulnerable Republicans might back away from controversial legislation like the GOP tax bill as “inside-the-D.C. Beltway political theater.” “I think the lesson is, let’s get some things done,” said Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio). “I think what people want, whether they’re Republicans or Democrats, is to see progress here in Washington and I think that’s some of the frustration, certainly among people who didn’t show up to vote and some who did show up to vote." Still, a broader anxiety in the GOP ranks was palpable a day after they watched dozens of veteran Republicans in statehouses and local governments booted from office. And it had some lawmakers calling for some introspection from their party leader, President Donald Trump. “I do believe it was a referendum on the president,” said Rep. Scott Taylor (R-Va.), whose district narrowly voted for Democrat Ralph Northam in the Virginia governor's race. “Some people, starting at the top — because that’s what leadership does — we need some self-reflection in our own party, our own rhetoric.” “I think that the divisive rhetoric absolutely contributed to stoking emotions, which helped draw turnout,” he said. Other Republicans similarly pointed to Trump’s ability to stoke controversy and draw out his opponents as a driver behind Tuesday’s losses. And that’s a perilous dynamic as vulnerable Republicans in the House consider whether to tie themselves to Trump’s top legislative priority, a rewrite of the nation’s tax code that’s already packed with provisions that Democrats are painting as a giveaway to the rich or a burden to middle income families. Cole emphasized that the bill is still being changed and that some of the pieces that may be political headaches could be adjusted to make them more palatable to undecided members. “This bill’s not coming down from Mt. Sinai on stone tablets,” he said. “A lot of these things tend to get worked out during the course of the legislative process.” But Cole added individual provisions aren’t likely to dictate whether the bill is popular or not. “In the end,” he said. “I think it’s the mega impact.” Unlike the House, where two-dozen Republicans will be defending turf won by Hillary Clinton last year, Senate Republicans face a different calculus.. Instead of stemming a surge of anti-Trump fervor in suburban areas, GOP senators are mostly on offense in conservative territory next November. Ten Senate Democrats are running for reelection in states Trump won last year, including five in deeply red states such as North Dakota and West Virginia. Because of their vastly different map, Senate Republicans weren’t too concerned — at least publicly — about the GOP rout on Tuesday spreading to their battle to keep their narrow majority. “It means people want us to get things done,” South Dakota Sen. John Thune, the third-ranking Senate Republican, said of the election outcome. “I think people want results and we got to start delivering results or we’re going to have more election results like that.” Senate Republicans on Thursday will unveil their long-awaited tax plan. They can lose only two Republican votes, assuming all Democrats line up against the bill. Leaders will have to balance demands from influential moderates, deficit hawks and conservatives in cobbling together 50 votes. Passing a tax plan that spurs the economy and helps middle-class families, said Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, will "be met with success by the American voters.” Added Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn: “I don’t think it’s possible to bring any more pressure” on Republicans to do tax reform.

November 9, 2017 at 08:44AM