House GOP faces its fears after Virginia election

House GOP faces its fears after Virginia election
Virginia’s elections set off a wave of panic inside the House GOP Tuesday night, increasing worries that the party's majority is in jeopardy in 2018 and that more incumbents may decide to retire rather than run for reelection next year. Democrats’ bigger-than-expected win in Virginia, which included a big gubernatorial win and may wrest control of the state House of Delegates from Republicans after recounts in several districts, prompted a flurry of phone calls between GOP members and campaign advisers watching the results of a hostile political environment unfold before them. Paul Shumaker, a Republican strategist based in North Carolina, talked to several of his political clients Wednesday morning, warning them: “First of all, you have to run the race of your life. Second, you have to carve out a unique set of issues for yourself, which is very hard to do for down-ballot races, and localize issues to overcome concerns voters might have about Trump.” “That’s a tall order,” Shumaker said. Data points out of Virginia confirm Republicans’ fears that bubbled under the surface all year, which special election victories in safely red seats “glazed over,” said a senior GOP aide. But “now there’s [electoral] evidence that there’s reason to really worry." Swing voters in suburban counties outside Washington and Richmond soured on Republicans up and down the Virginia ballot, an ominous sign for dozens of suburban Republicans in Congress, while the progressive base poured out to vote in high numbers. College-educated voters backed Democratic Gov.-elect Ralph Northam with 60 percent of their votes, according to exit polls. “While we’re several political lifetimes away from next November, it’s clear that if you’re a Republican from a state or district that voted for Hillary Clinton, or has a significant base of college-educated voters, you have a lot of sleepless nights in front of you,” said Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster. Tuesday’s result are also serving as a reality check for members who may be considering retirement during a cycle that’s become increasingly difficult for Republicans to raise money. Nearly three dozen GOP incumbents were outraised by Democratic challengers in the third quarter of this year, as the liberal base continues to pour money into first-time candidates. “Every Republican member is sitting down with their chief-of-staff and campaign consultant this morning to talk about what 2018 looks like,” former Rep. David Jolly said. “For some, they’ll be more strongly considering retiring. For others, last night’s results would suggest the cutline for Republican vulnerable seats just got raised significantly higher.” Several Republican incumbents have already opted for retirement, vacating battleground seats that improves Democratic chances at flipping the seat. Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent, Washington Rep. Dave Reichert, Florida Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Michigan Rep. Dave Trott have all announced their plans for retirement. But late departures will also complicate Republican efforts to hold the House. “That’s why the retirements are damaging – because now you’re talking about replacing an incumbent with five terms and the capability of raising $3 million with a challenger who has to fight through a primary and then find a couple million to put on the air saying why they’re different than Donald Trump,” said Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster. Republicans, calculating who might leave behind seats in the coming weeks, named Arizona Rep. Martha McSally and Michigan Rep. Fred Upton, two moderates eying runs at higher office. Others noted a handful of members whose fundraising has slowed, often a sign of impending departure. Three Republican incumbents — New Jersey Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, New York Rep. John J. Faso and Virginia Rep. Tom Garrett — each raised less money last quarter than three different Democratic opponents running in their districts. “What terrifies Republicans most about losing the majority is having more of these retirements, which could speed up after Virginia,” said a Republican fundraiser. “The number of swing district retirements — McSally, Reichert, Dent, and we’re expecting five or six more — could be the true measure of Democratic ability to flip the House.” But several Republicans noted that members aren’t necessarily departing for electoral reasons, but frustration with Congress. New Jersey Rep. Frank LoBiondo, a senior member on the Armed Services Committee, cited partisan gridlock Tuesday when he made a surprise retirement announcement. “Those of us who came to Congress to change Washington for the better through good governance are now the outliers,” LoBiondo said in a statement. Republican operatives point out that the party is still under the 22-seat average for retirements, but they’re bracing for more, as dissatisfaction over a year’s worth of stalled policies in Congress continues to frustrate members. “Last night may also make progress on tax reform — which means, for some, taking a tough vote — more difficult,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant based in California “If tax reform fails, that’ll encourage even more members to move toward retirement.” GOP operatives emphasized that success on a big-ticket policy item like tax reform is now a do-or-die legislative moment for Republican members. “Last night should serve as a wake-up call to the Republican Party,” said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership. “We better get moving — cut middle class taxes and deliver on the agenda what we promised — or else.” American Action Network, CLF’s sister organization, has already spent more than $18 million on advertising urging members to support tax reform legislation. Democrats said they recognized the echoes of previous wave elections, having been on the other side. “I’ve know this feeling — I’ve been there in 2010 and 2014,” said Ian Russell, who served as deputy executive director at the DCCC last cycle. “You start to lose people when they see it coming.”

November 9, 2017 at 08:44AM